2023-05-17 08:30 聯合報／紐時賞析
The ‘Peace Dividend’ Is Over in Europe. Now Come the Hard Tradeoffs.
歐洲「和平紅利」沒了 面臨艱難權衡
In the 30 years since the Iron Curtain came crashing down, trillions of dollars that had been dedicated to Cold War armies and weapons systems were gradually diverted to health care, housing and schools.
鐵幕轟然倒塌的30年來，曾經貢獻給冷戰軍隊與武器系統的數以兆計美元，逐漸轉移到健保、住房與學校。
That era — when security took a back seat to trade and economic growth — abruptly ended with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
安全讓位給貿易與經濟成長的那個時代，隨著俄羅斯去年入侵烏克蘭戛然而止。
“The peace dividend is gone,” Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, recently declared, referring to the mountains of cash that were freed up when military budgets shrank. “Defense expenditures have to go up.”
國際貨幣基金總裁喬治艾娃最近宣告「和平紅利沒了」，她指的是軍事預算縮水時騰出來的大量現金，「國防開支必須上漲」。
The urgent need to combat a brutal and unpredictable Russia has forced European leaders to make excruciating budgetary decisions that will enormously affect people’s everyday lives. Do they spend more on howitzers or hospitals, tanks or teachers, rockets or roadways? And how to pay for it: raise taxes or borrow more? Or both?
要對抗殘酷與難以預料的俄羅斯，此一迫切需求迫使歐洲領導人做出令人痛苦的預算決策，將大幅影響人們的日常生活。他們會在哪個項目多花錢，榴彈砲還是醫院、戰車還是教師、火箭還是道路？還有如何籌錢：增稅還是借更多錢？或者兩者皆是？
The sudden security demands, which will last well beyond an end to the war in Ukraine, come at a moment when colossal outlays are also needed to care for rapidly aging populations, as well as to avoid potentially disastrous climate change. The European Union’s ambitious goal to be carbon neutral by 2050 alone is estimated to cost between $175 billion and $250 billion each year for the next 27 years.
突如其來的安全需求，即使在烏克蘭戰爭結束後也會長久持續，此刻還需要龐大費用照料急劇老化的人口，以及避免潛在災難性氣候變遷。單單歐盟要在2050年實現碳中和的遠大目標，接下來27年估計每年要花1,750億至2,500億美元。
“The spending pressures on Europe will be huge, and that’s not even taking into account the green transition,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard. “The whole European social safety net is very vulnerable to these big needs.”
哈佛大學經濟學教授羅格夫說，「歐洲支出壓力會很大，這甚至沒有考慮到綠色轉型。整個歐洲社會安全網非常容易受到這些大型需求的影響」。
Before war broke out in Ukraine, military spending by the European members of NATO was expected to reach nearly $1.8 trillion by 2026, a 14% increase over five years, according to research by McKinsey & Co. Now, spending is estimated to rise between 53% and 65%.
根據麥肯錫公司研究，戰爭在烏克蘭爆發之前，北約的歐洲成員國到2026年軍事開支預期將達近1.8兆美元，5年間增長14%。現在，這筆開支估計將提高53%至65%。
That means hundreds of billions of dollars that otherwise could have been used to, say, invest in bridge and highway repairs, child care, cancer research, refugee resettlement or public orchestras is expected to be redirected to the military.
也就是說，原本可能被用在諸如橋梁與公路修繕、兒童照顧、癌症研究、難民安置或公共管弦樂團的數千億美元，預期將被轉用於軍事。
文／Patricia Cohen , Liz Alderman 譯／周辰陽
